For any given river, what is the probability that a 20-year flood will occur in 2018?

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Study for the Introduction to Physical Geology Exam with quizzes and multiple choice questions. Each question comes with hints and explanations to help you prepare effectively. Get ready for your exam!

Multiple Choice

For any given river, what is the probability that a 20-year flood will occur in 2018?

Explanation:
In hydrology, a 20-year flood is defined by an annual exceedance probability of 1 in 20, or 5%. That means in any given year, the chance that the river exceeds this threshold is 5%, regardless of what happened in previous years. So for 2018, the probability of experiencing a flood of that magnitude is 5%. This doesn’t imply it won’t happen again soon or that it happens exactly once every 20 years; each year is an independent 5% chance.

In hydrology, a 20-year flood is defined by an annual exceedance probability of 1 in 20, or 5%. That means in any given year, the chance that the river exceeds this threshold is 5%, regardless of what happened in previous years. So for 2018, the probability of experiencing a flood of that magnitude is 5%. This doesn’t imply it won’t happen again soon or that it happens exactly once every 20 years; each year is an independent 5% chance.

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